Approaching the Midterms: Bitcoin’s Historical Context

The upcoming U.S. midterm elections are set for November 3, and Bitcoin is currently trading at approximately $84,459.46 (BTC). As this significant date approaches, it is worth examining how Bitcoin has historically fared during similar election periods, often coinciding with market bottom phases.

Past Election Outcomes and Bitcoin’s Prices

Historical analysis reveals that Bitcoin prices have reached their lowest points shortly following past midterm elections:

• January 2015: Price bottomed about 71 days post-election.
• December 2018: Price hit a low approximately 38 days after the elections.
• November 2022: The lowest price occurred around 13 days following the voting day.

Contrastingly, this year’s lowest price of $57,850 occurred considerably earlier, on July 1—around 125 days before the elections.

Recent Market Performance

As of October 22, Bitcoin’s price has rebounded significantly, reaching approximately $81,455, which is about 40% above its July low. This trend indicates a recovery that differs from the historical patterns noted in previous elections.

Pre-Election Market Behavior

A broader examination of Bitcoin’s performance in the lead-up to past midterm elections reveals substantial declines:

• In the six months preceding the 2018 midterms, Bitcoin saw a decline of about 29%.
• Before the 2022 midterm elections, the cryptocurrency fell by approximately 37%.

Comparative Analysis: Technology Stocks

The technology sector has mirrored similar trends around midterm elections. For example:

• The Invesco QQQ Trust fell nearly 23% from late September to a low in December 2018, with a significant portion of this drop occurring post-election.
• In the three months leading up to the 2022 elections, the QQQ experienced a 17% decline.
• Conversely, during the six months leading to the 2014 midterms, the QQQ showed positive growth of about 17%.