Florida Gubernatorial Poll: Byron Donalds Holds Lead Over David Jolly

A recent poll conducted by NBC South Florida in collaboration with the Telemundo Station Group reveals that Republican candidate Byron Donalds is maintaining a noticeable lead over Democrat David Jolly in the race for governor of Florida. This poll indicates a 7-percentage-point advantage for Donalds, who garnered 48% of the responses compared to Jolly’s 41%.

Senate Race Insights

In another significant contest, Republican Senator Ashley Moody appears to be leading her Democratic opponent, Angie Nixon, by a margin of 10 points. The poll shows Moody at 50%, against Nixon’s 40%. Nixon emerged as the Democratic candidate following an unexpected primary win over Alexander Vindman.

Voter Sentiment and Demographics

Despite an overall sense of optimism among Democrats regarding the upcoming 2026 elections, this poll highlights potential limitations to that enthusiasm in Florida. A notable component of the survey examined the state’s influential Hispanic voter demographic, particularly in South Florida. In the 2024 elections, Donald Trump previously won Miami-Dade County, which has a large Hispanic population, by approximately 11 points. This shift marked a significant change from Joe Biden’s 2020 victory in the county, where he led by 7 points.

Currently, the poll indicates that Donalds has a slight lead among Hispanic voters as well, at 48% to Jolly’s 43%. For the Senate race, Moody leads Nixon 47% to 40% in this demographic. Nevertheless, Trump’s approval rating among Hispanic voters has taken a hit, with 49% expressing disapproval of his performance compared to 45% who approve.

Key Issues Influencing Voter Decisions

The poll highlights inflation and the cost of living as the top issues for Florida voters, with 30% identifying these factors as most likely to sway their votes. Other pertinent issues included:

• Direction of the state or country – 17%
• Immigration enforcement – 16%
• Property taxes (particularly among Hispanic voters) – 13%

In particular, sentiment among Hispanic voters has shifted since Trump’s tenure, with many indicating dissatisfaction over inflation and rising costs as contributing factors to their changing opinions on Republican leadership.

Property Tax Reform Proposal

Property taxes remain a hot-button issue in Florida, especially with the proposed Amendment 3, which seeks to increase property tax exemptions to cover the first $250,000 of a home’s value by 2028, up from the current $50,000. This amendment has garnered support from 55% of surveyed voters, including 74% of Republicans, yet only 36% of Democrats supported it.

Poll Methodology

The survey was conducted from September 28 through early October and included responses from 625 registered voters likely to participate in the November elections, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. A subset of 400 Hispanic registered voters was also surveyed, with a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

As the November elections approach, these early indications provide valuable insights into voter preferences and the electoral landscape in Florida.