Bitcoin Public Key Exposure: A Quantum Risk Assessment
Understanding Bitcoin’s Accessibility
Recent data from Glassnode reveals that approximately 35.4% of all Bitcoin, equating to around 7.12 million BTC, has public keys publicly available as of November 10, 2026. This exposure signifies a key vulnerability, particularly if advancements in quantum computing materialize as anticipated.
Public vs. Private Keys Explained
Bitcoin wallets utilize a private key system to authorize transactions. The public key, which can be derived from the private key, is visible on the blockchain. Under the current cryptography framework, backward calculation from a public key to its corresponding private key is deemed impractical. However, the emergence of a sufficiently robust quantum computer could challenge this assumption, potentially placing exposed coins at risk.
Sources of Public Key Exposure
According to Glassnode, the identified exposure can be categorized into two primary sources:
- Address Reuse: This accounts for 25.8% of the exposed public keys, where previous transactions have already revealed the public key.
- Exchanges: Coin balances held by exchanges contribute to 11.6% of the total exposure.
The trend indicates an increase in exposure, rising from 24.8% in early 2021 to 35.4% today, signaling a growing concern over the visibility of these keys.
Comparative Data and Anomalies
Additional insights from independent research conducted by ChainQuery corroborate Glassnode’s findings, indicating that approximately 35.6% of Bitcoin is similarly exposed. This consistency suggests that the report’s methodology accurately reflects the broader situation.
Historical Context and Legacy Formats
A portion of the exposed assets is attributable to Bitcoin’s early history. Legacy Pay-to-Public-Key (P2PK) outputs, which directly record public keys, account for about 1.71 million BTC. Notably, a significant quantity of these coins is associated with Satoshi Nakamoto, the enigmatic creator of Bitcoin. Given the unlikely event of these coins being relocated, they remain a permanent concern in terms of exposure.
The Role of New Output Types
Another factor impacting key visibility is the introduction of Taproot, a more recent output format. Currently, Taproot outputs hold around 222,000 BTC and may possess characteristics that increase the possibility of key exposure. However, without specific efforts to decode private keys, these coins are not at imminent risk.
Addressing the Quantum Threat
Despite the current lack of existing quantum computers that can breach Bitcoin’s encryption, the analysis by Glassnode emphasizes proactive measures. Rafael Schultze-Kraft, co-founder of Glassnode, suggests a straightforward solution for those with exposed keys: transferring coins from reused addresses to newly generated ones effectively mitigates the risk linked to exposure.
Implications for Individual Holders
For Bitcoin users, the relevant takeaway is straightforward. If one has consistently used the same receiving address, their coins fall within the 25.8% exposure related to address reuse. Moving these coins to a new address can significantly diminish this risk.
Future Considerations
While individuals can combat address reuse one by one, the legacy P2PK outputs pose a more systemic issue that cannot be rectified simply. Any future transition to post-quantum cryptography must contend with the existing coins that may never see active management from their owners. As the percentage of exposed keys continues to rise, it underscores the urgency of addressing these vulnerabilities even without a fixed timeline for potential quantum threats.
