Details of the Decline

Prior to the release of the new revenue figures, the tech index was already under strain, driven by various economic factors. Bond yields have reached a two-decade high, crude oil prices surged above $90 per barrel, and concerns surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) borrowing contributed to a negative outlook for futures trading throughout the day.

New Revenue Projections for OpenAI

On September 29, reports suggested that OpenAI’s annualized revenue reached $70 billion. However, a subsequent update from the Financial Times indicated that OpenAI’s current revenue projection is closer to $50 billion at the end of September, as shared with investors.

This annualized revenue figure represents a forecast based on current sales trends rather than confirmed sales. The discrepancy in revenue estimates primarily stems from differing accounting methods.

Notably, AI competitor Anthropic, which is preparing for its own public offering, includes sales through cloud partners like Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud in its revenue calculations, while OpenAI does not. Investors who have adjusted their models to align with Anthropic’s accounting practices were the ones landing on the earlier, higher revenue forecasts for OpenAI.

Despite the adjusted figures, OpenAI reported a revenue growth of over 70% during the same period and documented $13.07 billion in revenue for the fiscal year 2025, according to audited records referenced by Quartz.

Contributing Factors to Tech Stock Pressure

The onset of the day’s market challenges was evident, with Nasdaq 100 futures already down by 0.5% prior to the revenue news. Key factors exerting pressure on tech stocks included:

• The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield hitting its highest level in over 20 years.
• Brent crude oil prices climbing above $100 per barrel amid geopolitical instability in the Middle East.
• Rising concerns regarding AI financing, as Broadcom is reportedly seeking over $50 billion for a custom chip project in collaboration with OpenAI, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Market skeptics, including notable investors like Michael Burry, have suggested that a market correction is necessary to temper enthusiasm towards upcoming AI IPOs, indicating that revenue metrics for companies like OpenAI and Anthropic serve as critical indicators of AI demand and related infrastructure investments.